Rates and the forecast for the match Napoli — Liverpool, 17 Sep 2019

All the matches of group E in the first round of the Champions League will be held this Tuesday and among them will be the meeting between Napoli and Liverpool — teams who played in the same group in last season’s tournament, but finished differently: the Italian team took 3rd place and were relegated to the Europa League, and the English passed on and eventually became the champion of Europe, although Italy lost. What will happen now?

The contents

  • Napoli
  • Liverpool
  • The coefficients and forecast


The Italian team had a good pre-season, before the campaign playing with the same “Liverpool”, “Marcel” and “Barcelona”, but started in the Series But not the best way, having to play against Juventus already in the 2nd round.

However, while the fight with the current champion of the country looks quite good, “Napoli” need to switch to the Champions League, in which he has caused problems to Liverpool last season, winning in Naples with the score 1:0 and barely leaving the Liverpool team without a playoff in the last round of the group stage.

Despite the fact that in the Championship of Italy the Neapolitan team earned 6 of the possible 9 points, she conceded first in 4 of their last 5 games, including both times against Barcelona, while Liverpool defeated with the score 0:3.

According to a predictive model, “five-network-eyt” (FiveThirtyEight), wards Carlo Ancelotti has a 50% chance to reach the playoffs, but the chances to take first place in the group is not a lot — but the real competitors are Champions of Europe, except the Italian team, among the group members E no.

The model predicts the team in defence and attack about the same, which demonstrates Leverkusen, and the latest results confirm this: 8 of the previous 10 games with Napoli is over at least with 3 goals.


Unlike his Italian opponent, the English team from the start began to dominate in the Premier League and is the sole leader in the standings.

Winning the Champions League was to relieve Liverpool from the additional thoughts about the competition and concentrate on the long-awaited championship in the country, which many fans wanted more than success in Europe.

While the team all goes according to plan, but there is one thing: of the 5 matches of the new season she missed in 4. Let in the main time she gave the opponents to score only one goal, however it turns out that in 7 out of 8 games before Tuesday, “red” not only scored, but also missed.

8 of their last 9 matches with participation of wards Jurgen Klopp has ended not less than with 3 goals, while the defense, according to the forecasts of “538” in the Champions League even better than Manchester city.

The coefficients and forecast

Current European champion and one of the 3 top favorites for victory in next year’s finals favorite before the match in Naples:

2.9–3.2: the victory of “Napoli”;
3.4–3.7: draw;
2.25–2.33: victory “Liverpool”.

In this match anything can happen. It would be possible to put in goals for both teams, but this outcome appreciate the low odds, so you’d better play carefully.