In the last Saturday match of the 3rd round of the German Bundesliga will meet the newcomer in the top division “Union Berlin” and one of the leaders of the season, “Borussia Dortmund”.
Despite the fact that this is the first campaign of the home team in the Championship of Germany in history, they have repeatedly met with the Vice-Champions of the country, most recently last season. Then the main time of the match of 1/16 finals of the German Cup ended with the score 2:2, but missed a penalty in extra time of the last overtime led to the departure of then-member of the 2nd Bundesliga.
- Union Berlin
- Borussia Dortmund
- The coefficients and forecast
The team from Berlin will start the 3rd round of the Championship of Germany in 14th place in the standings, where she ended up after the devastating home defeat “RB Leipzig” with the score 0:4 in the first round and away draw 1:1 with the “Augsburg” in the following.
The difference of scored and missed goals “Union Berlin” was the worst among the 4 teams that scored in both the opening rounds, one point: scored one and missed 5 times more. Of course, in a match against one of the leaders of the Bundesliga and the highest-scoring team at the start of this tour believe underdogma.
In addition, according to the predictions of the mathematical model of the website “five-network-eyt” (FiveThirtyEight), “iron” — the main contenders for a return to a lower division at the end of this campaign. The probability that this happens is 42%. One percent less than the “Paderborn”, then the team with 33% or less.
Let the “Union Berlin” and missed in all 3 matches of the new season, but the matches with his participation over the standard punch — in 8 of the last 10 games involving the “iron Union” was not scored less than 3 goals.
Dortmund-based team has finished both of the previous round in first place in the standings, but before Saturday’s matches were no longer leaders in the Bundesliga: victory “RB Leipzig” over “mönchengladbach” with the account 1:3 has led to the fact that the guests fell to 2nd place with goal difference 8:2 9:2 in the “Leipzig”.
Of course, before Saturday’s game it’s not a big deal, but “Borussia Dortmund”, even being one of the leaders of the championship from the first round and 2-m the main applicant for an exit in League of Champions becomes a champion with a probability of only 12%, according to forecasts of “538”.
This is despite 12 consecutive matches without defeats and victories in their last 11 games, most of which “black and yellow” was scored first. However, in 6 of 8 games this weekend “the bees” and scored and missed, so in their next confrontation may take not only goals, but also goals of both teams.
The coefficients and forecast
Guests are considered favourites to win, but odds on hosts are not so highthat you can find acceptable odds in their favor:
6.5–9.1: the victory of the “Union Berlin”.
1.32–1.46: victory “Borussia Dortmund”.
We are not going to risk once again direct outcome and choose the dual in favor of the guests, but only to increase the odds for goals as the “Union” and “Borussia”.